The Premortem Examination*

"What could possibly go wrong?" 

Speculators, companies, and sophisticated analysts perform a PREMORTEM EXAMINATION. They "look back" from a presumed future date to determine 'what went south'. The 'premortem' improves project outcomes an estimated 30 percent. 

The premortem informs what might go wrong, improving decision-making. It can avoid confirmation bias and overconfidence. 

Author Gary Klein, who wrote Sources of Power, shares insights on the Premortem at HBR.org. Here are excerpts:

"By making it safe for dissenters who are knowledgeable about the undertaking and worried about its weaknesses to speak up, you can improve a project’s chances of success." We all witnessed leaders who reject unwelcome criticism from concerned stakeholders.

"The team members’ task is to generate plausible reasons for the project’s failure." 

"Those in the room independently write down every reason they can think of for the failure—especially the kinds of things they ordinarily wouldn’t mention as potential problems, for fear of being impolitic." 

As we launch a season, asking "what went wrong" in advance seems painfully obvious. 

1) Attribution bias. Blame events beyond our control - bad luck in close games, officiating, injuries, or illness. Our key players were out. Does it matter? Control what you can control.  

2) Culture wars. Team chemistry failed. Who owns that? Players do not play for the community, their school, for their families, or even for the coaches. "Play for each other, the girl next to you." 

3) Development failure. Practice didn't produce communication, offensive cohesion (collaboration), skill growth (attacking), or reducing mistakes (serve receive). Players struggled to grasp new concepts. "What has not been learned hasn't been taught." Trade in reality, not in excuses. Melrose has the best floor communicator in MVB history. 

4) I am the problem. The coach owns culture, team selection, skill and team development, and the allocation of resources (practice time, philosophy, playing time). Focus on process - development and competitiveness are the primary goals. With the best process, the best outcomes follow. 

Heather McCloskey provides detailed inquiry into product rollout here.  

*Adapted from my basketball blog 

Lagniappe. Theory and practice, the short ball...