Separating Signal from Noise*

*Adapted from my basketball blog. 

Life is about making choices. Choose leaders, assistants, teammates, style of play, locations, and more. 

Variability results from both "bias" and "noise." Bias is systematic. Bias affects choices based on specific characteristics - age, gender, ethnicity, experience, education, religion, and so forth. If we've decided, "we need a woman" or "we need a Harvard Law grad" for this job that's bias. In 1985, UCONN wanted the best woman as basketball coach. The players pushed for the 'best' coach. Geno Auriemma was the pick. 

NOISE is unwanted variability. Noise impacts ‘fairness’ in employee evaluation, grading, sentencing, medical diagnosis and treatment, coaching, college admissions and more. When I coached with Ralph Labella, he picked the first eleven and I got the final choice. That "noisy" choice selected Sydney Doherty who became one of our top two players. Noise can work against or for you. 

Rigid guidelines reduce noise and discretion. Reducing noise led to ‘sentencing guidelines’ and ‘standardized testing’. Three strikes and you’re out gave life sentences for three felonies. But all felonies are not alike. I don’t know whether a three time car thief merits ‘life’. 

Coaches evaluate players for selection, minutes, roles, and recognition. Can we separate signal from noise in a 90 minute audition? If we see 20 players, probably a quarter emerge at the top, a quarter at the bottom and half are in the middle. The middle becomes a crapshoot. For fairness's sake, I devote more time to evaluating that middle. 

We reduce variability with small-sided games, usually 3 v 3 rotating players for the last half hour. Multiple 'graders' also dampen the noise. Fair? I don’t know. 

Style of play. Seek solutions to put players in the best position to succeed. Maybe we believe Wooden, "Basketball is a game meant to be played fast." With superior talent, I agree. Multiply advantage by more possessions and the edge expands. But as an underdog with less talent and experience, playing faster and extending the defense will probably get you croaked. 

Reducing Noise:

Sport decisions may be reproducible but imprecise. Both bias and noise will always enter into the mix. Most of us will feel more comfortable with our judgment than hard rules. 

Lagniappe. Warmup physically and mentally. 

"We're not in the gym to get good at training."