The Math Behind the Numbers (Power Rankings)

 

Where does the average margin arise?

In 14 games, Melrose has won 35 sets and lost 15. That's + 20 sets.

= 20/14 = 1.428

We can't get at the opponents' rating, but suffice that Melrose has played a tough nonleague schedule. 

With six games left, under the best case Melrose can win 18 sets and lose none. That's not a prediction. The optimal scenario goes to +38 sets 

= 38/20 = 1.90 so that's their maximum average margin. 

But the opponents rating will factor in. Stoneham, Wilmington, and Watertown all are below minus 0.5. Wakefield is 1.35, Arlington 1.14, Burlington is 0.99. All in all that's like to net out by lowering Melrose opponent rating to something approaching 1.45-1.50. 

In other words, if Melrose plays extremely well down the stretch, their rating is likely to net out between 3.4 and 3.5 as a function of scheduling. 

It's the New Math.