Tuesday, October 03, 2023

Coaching, The "Eyeball Test" and Analytics


Not everyone is a fan of analytics. The first year I watched volleyball (2002), I didn't have a clue. Serve, someone hits the ball into the air, the setter chases it (passing often wasn't great), and if it's close to the net, a big girl spikes it. 

It's a bit more complicated than 'dig, set, spike'. 

As a player, your goal is to have a positive impact on winning. That shows up in different ways - 'numbers', communication, energy, decision-making. For example, Maggie Turner, one of the shortest players on the team, makes plays but constantly communicates and energizes teammates. That impacts winning. Her communication level is 'off the charts'. 

Coaches synthesize what the see, "Coaches Eyes" with measurables (e.g. analytics). Santa Coach knows who's been naughty or nice. 

For example: 

Efficiency % = (Perfect Actions – Errors)/ Total Attempts

Example: 
Hitting % = (Kills – Attack Errors)/ Total Attack Attempts

You say, "she's a great hitter." What does that mean? Great hitters have high hitting percentages. If you have few kills and many errors, you have a negative hitting percentage. If a player says, "but I'm being aggressive" that might mean attacking poor percentage balls resulting in few kills and many errors. Maybe she gets a few more kills along the way at the expense of errors - a negative impact on winning.

Top collegiate women have a hitting percentage over 50 percent. Among the Massachusetts high school statistical leaders, the demarcation line for the top 10 is 34 percent. 

I'm not saying that aggressiveness doesn't matter. But it's "controlled aggression" that balances timidity and recklessness. Falling back or off-balance attacks are more likely to go wide, long, or into the next. That attack ends up being a "minus 1" an error divided by an attack. 

Similarly, if you are playing a free ball that has to go over the net, it has to go over the net. A free ball pass is not counted as an attack. 

It's analogous to basketball and turnovers. A turnover means a wasted possession. Worse yet, live ball turnovers result in higher points/possession for opponents off the turnover. Look it up. 

Turnovers (errors) arise in two ways - poor execution (e.g. skill) or poor decision-making

The bottom line is that both the eyeball test and analytics matter. Repeatedly poor execution or decision-making negatively impacts winning... and playing time. As you know, Coach Scott Celli is a mathematician by profession...and unafraid to make changes to raise the prospects of success. 

Lagniappe. 


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