Quantitative and Qualitative Modeling

 

Legendary basketball coach Don Meyer described three phases of coaching - blind enthusiasm, sophisticated complexity, and mature simplicity. Obviously, these aren't always mutually exclusive. 

Blind enthusiasm - "outhustle them, outwork them"

Sophisticated complexity - break the game down into an almost infinite amount of detail, teach it, and analyze what is working and isn't

Mature simplicity - Do what we do a lot well, better than our opponents. 

In Game Changer, sport scientist Fergus Connolly favors breaking the game into macro moments - offense, defense, and the transitions between, and micro moments, the "details of execution." 

As you face better competition, "absolute superiority" becomes less realistic. You can schedule it (so-called CUPCAKES) but that will hurt you in the postseason. So, smart teams focus on creating "relative superiority" and capitalizing on those moments. 

That includes overall player development with advantages in serving or blocking pairs. In other sports, like basketball, we might get advantage through pressure defense, transition, or mismatches via creating switches. 

For the individual, it often boils down to "what is your unique skill" that will get you on the court and keep you on the court? And some of that (e.g. serve percentage, aces, attack efficiency) is measurable. 

"The Magic Is in the Work"

Japanese libero training is famous. 

Kobata is among the best in the world. 

State Finals: Where Are You on Your Journey?

It's a long way to the top. Melrose made four trips to the finals and didn't win it all until the third in 2012. 

Winning is hard. That's what makes it valuable. 

The new State Tournament format eliminates the "easy bracket" pathway to the Final Four. Teams that survive and advance to the Final Eight will be worthy competitors. 

What are you doing today to be ready for your time? Focus on building skills. 

Cause and Effect

 "The magic is in the work." 

Elena Soukos skies for the attack.

Elena with Coach Scott Celli and her Massachusetts Volleyball Coaches Association All-State recognition plaque. Well-deserved! 

Happy Thanksgiving! How Are You Improving Today?

Happy Thanksgiving and congratulations on a great season.

Are you working on your game for 2022? Work on the "core skills" and your athleticism.

Core Skills (Offense)

• Hitting/Attacking
• Setting
• Serving

Core Skills (Defense)

• Blocking 
• Passing 
• Digging

Practicing jump serves has two benefits as it informs your attack but it also helps your defenders work on serve receive. This video might help:

What Drives Winning (and Losing)?

Bill Parcells had a saying, "you are what your record says you are." That's not always true but if not, explanations should be clear. 

You could also use mathematician Carl Jacobi's principle of "inversion" as in, "invert, always invert." 

If a team constantly fails, find the reason why and consider implementing the opposite. 

Cross posted...

What Are You Prepared to Sacrifice?

"Success is a choice." What are you prepared to sacrifice?

Cross-posted. 

Scheduling: A Key to Success

"Iron sharpens iron." Upgrading the schedule has long been a priority of Coach Scott Celli. Part of the solution emerged from the Middlesex League which continually improves.

Among the five Freedom Division opponents, Burlington and Wakefield guarantee four tough contests. In the Liberty Division, Winchester, Woburn, and Reading are always competitive and Arlington, Belmont, and Lexington are no pushovers. That equates to at least ten of sixteen ML competitive matches.  

That leaves four non-league contests. Normally, teams agree on a home and home series which also allows fans who don't travel to see good clubs. And it allows Melrose to learn to win on the road. Rarely, an opposing community doesn't follow through on the return visit to Melrose. 

Melrose has 'stable' relationships with Frontier, Newton North, and Central Catholic and had a solid contest with Peabody this season. The former two went to the state championship in their divisions. 

Preseason scrimmages afford another avenue to hone your game. Melrose faces strong teams in the preseason and some of the top teams in the state at the Medway Play Date. 

Players often ask, "how good are they?" Remember Coach Don Meyer's quote, "it matters how you play not whom you play."

Lagniappe (something extra). 

End of the Line, State Finals Hit Melrose Opponents Hard

Among other iconic performances, "Queen" is famous for "Another One Bites the Dust." Well, that wouldn't summarize what happened yesterday. Triple jeopardy as all three previous Melrose opponents hit the canvas Saturday.  

Newton North couldn't dethrone Needham in Division 1 at the Tigers succumbed in five sets. 

Melrose conqueror Westborough came into the finals having lost only three sets in twenty-two matches this season. Hopkinton handed them the same number of defeats yesterday, rallying from a 1-0 deficit to win 3-1. 

And Frontier, winner of double digit state titles, got upset 3-1 by upstart Paulo Freire.  

The Name of the Game

Sustainable competitive advantage is the name of the game. How do you get there? You see the same teams go deep in the playoffs, year after year. 

Melrose has been in the Final Four nine of the past eighteen years with playoffs. Twice they lost in the sectional finals to a Central Catholic team which was later moved to Division 1. 

What's the secret sauce? 

• Investment. Alabama coach Nick Saban asks, "are you investing your time or are you spending it?" What is your commitment level? Do you want to make the team, to become a contributor, or become a force?
• Sacrifice. Parents and players sacrifice time and money to play on competitive offseason teams. It's not just playing on any offseason team, but the right ones. You think Newton North is in the Finals by accident or that SMASH in their backyard helps? There's no pot of gold at the end of the rainbow for almost all players. Club stars from volleyball hotbeds (California, Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio) get the lions share of scholarships. Offseason volleyball is expensive, as are personal training, athletic club membership (for weight training, etc.), and medical care for injuries (ankle, back, hand, etc.).
• Development. "Every day is player development day." There are a finite number of skills, but elite performance requires elite training. A top US team went to Japan and got annihilated by Japanese collegians on a team that trained eight hours a day, 363 days a year. The Japanese coach suggested that Minnesota try high school competition in Japan... and they went 4-9. We can argue Malcolm Gladwell's '10,000 hours' thesis, but deliberate practice matters. 
• Coaching. I know little about coaching volleyball but it's easy to see the impact of coaching locally (Coach Scott Celli recently reached 500 career wins) and throughout the Middlesex League. Kayla Wyland is turning around Wakefield. John Fleming made Winchester a Middlesex League force. 
• Scheduling. "Iron sharpens iron." Unless teams are willing to travel and schedule strong teams, they will not advance far in the postseason. Especially with the new playoff format, you won't "luck into a weak bracket" and get to the Final Four. 
• Talent. You need talent and you need to "keep it home" with a 'legacy program' with top coaching and scheduling. So many sports lose athletes to prep, private, and charter schools who recruit them away with scholarships and promises. 

What's the secret sauce? It's no secret. 

Melrose Opponents Moving on to the Finals

Scheduling tough opponents is critical for success. Melrose opponents in the Massachusetts finals include:

Division 1 - Newton North

Division 2 - Westborough (via playoffs)

Division 5 - Frontier 

Maxpreps.com Mass Rankings

#	School	Ovr.	Rating	Str.	+/-
1	Westborough	21-0	37.0	15.5
2	Hopkinton	24-0	33.7	12.5
3	Franklin	19-1	27.5	8.4	+1
4	Newton North (Newtonville)	18-2	26.8	10.0	+8
5	Haverhill	19-3	26.7	12.7	-2
6	Needham	21-1	26.7	7.9	+2
7	Concord-Carlisle (Concord)	21-2	26.6	10.8	-1
8	King Philip Regional (Wrentham)	22-2	26.4	9.0	-3
9	Melrose	21-3	25.4	10.1	-2
10	Ipswich	20-1	25.4	6.6
11	Billerica Memorial (Billerica)	20-3	24.9	10.5	-2

"Will I" Do What It Takes?

Potential applications are legion. 

- Will I invest more time studying? 

- Will I exercise? 

- Will I follow a healthier diet? 

- Will I get enough sleep? 

- Will I develop the skills I need to become a bigger contributor? 

Interrogative self-talk is a possible solution. 

Opportunities on the Edges

Melrose made another deep playoff run with strong play from its four seniors who will leave big shoes to fill. 

Outside hitters Elena Soukos and Abby Hudson brought a lot of thump to the lineup, libero Autumn Whelan was an exceptional defender, and Ava Burns produced at both right side and serving. 

Melrose will return experience with Gia Vlajkovic who might engender thoughts of a "two setter" system because of her hitting prowess, strong middles in Chloe Gentile and Sadie Jaggers, and solid defenders in Ava McSorley and Emma Desmond. 

Big opportunities are out there for players to step up and fill the edges and for someone to earn the libero slot. 

Coach Celli reminds players each postseason gathering that all spots are open and the ascension of Burns in particular proved that correct. As Shakespeare wrote, "oh reason not the need" another alternative is to return Gia to the outside for her dynamic hitting.

Expect no tears from Middlesex League opponents. 

State Semifinals: Westborough 3 Melrose 0

Top-seeded Westborough derailed Melrose's planned trip to its fifth state final with a 25-19, 25-14, 28-26 defeat. 

To get to the championship game, you have to be on top of your game and Melrose didn't have its "A" game. The Rangers had a lot to do with that with superb defense, consistent serving, and enough offense to keep Melrose off balance. 

Melrose struggled to get into their offense as Westborough's pressure constantly kept Melrose on their heels. 

Westborough's star sophomore Quinn Anderson came at Melrose from everywhere serving, back row hits, and outside attacks. She was a load and then some. 

Melrose fought back in the third set, leading 6-4 and 11-9 and having the edge at 24-20 and set points at 25 and 26 but couldn't put Westborough away. 

The better team usually wins and tonight was no exception. 

Melrose closes out the season 21-3 including three postseason wins. 

Melrose Notes: As usual, Melrose traveled well with a large contingent of student and volleyball supporters. Watertown had enough seating to meet the fan requirements and the ceiling height was adequate. 

The team recognized Coach Celli's recent 500th career coaching win. (Photo courtesy of Jen Gentile) 

 

Stay Ready

Stay ready. Lineups are dynamic. Players get sick, injured, have an off day, break a shoelace. 

Just because you haven't been in the rotation doesn't mean you won't get a shot because of the changing fortunes of luck or performance. 

I've beaten the "broken shoelace" (2005) to death because Taylor Pearson came in cold and performed. 

In a state semifinal a player was having an off day and Coach Celli brought in a sophomore off the bench. 

In 2012, during the State Championship run, Sydney Doherty came in and contributed some key points. 

Bill Parcells said, "Coaches are the most selfish people. We play people who make us look good." 

You might be called upon to come in and serve, even if you've never played in a varsity game because you have a dynamic serve. You might have to switch positions because of injury. 

Stay ready. 

Just One Thing: Keep Running

Everyone falls. Not everyone gets up.

Sport celebrates creativity. One of the top plays of the postseason came early in the second set against North Quincy with a "foot dig". 

The mission tonight is to put Westborough to sleep. The best comparative? Melrose faced Arlington Catholic (22-0) in the D2 North Finals in 2003 with the Cougars having not lost a set. Melrose emerged with a 3-0 victory with Denise Applegate administering the coup de grace with a topspin smash from the outside. 

Melrose Weekly Summary of Billerica Match

 Summary via Twitter

Corrected TICKET LINK

Volleyball semifinal tickets 

There Is Always Somebody

"There's always somebody saying you can't do it, and those people have to be ignored."
-Bill Cartwright#MondayMotivation #GetBetterEveryDay

— Coach DeMarco, EdD (@Coach_DeMarco) November 15, 2021

 

TICKETS for TOMORROW'S SEMIFINAL ONLY AVAILABLE at GOFAN.COM

"Your money is no good here." Literally. Fans must buy tickets for tomorrow night (Watertown, Tuesday 7 P.M.) at https://gofan.co/app/school/MA14639.