Quantitative and Qualitative Modeling

 

Legendary basketball coach Don Meyer described three phases of coaching - blind enthusiasm, sophisticated complexity, and mature simplicity. Obviously, these aren't always mutually exclusive. 

Blind enthusiasm - "outhustle them, outwork them"

Sophisticated complexity - break the game down into an almost infinite amount of detail, teach it, and analyze what is working and isn't

Mature simplicity - Do what we do a lot well, better than our opponents. 

In Game Changer, sport scientist Fergus Connolly favors breaking the game into macro moments - offense, defense, and the transitions between, and micro moments, the "details of execution." 

As you face better competition, "absolute superiority" becomes less realistic. You can schedule it (so-called CUPCAKES) but that will hurt you in the postseason. So, smart teams focus on creating "relative superiority" and capitalizing on those moments. 

That includes overall player development with advantages in serving or blocking pairs. In other sports, like basketball, we might get advantage through pressure defense, transition, or mismatches via creating switches. 

For the individual, it often boils down to "what is your unique skill" that will get you on the court and keep you on the court? And some of that (e.g. serve percentage, aces, attack efficiency) is measurable. 

"The Magic Is in the Work"

Japanese libero training is famous. 

Kobata is among the best in the world. 

State Finals: Where Are You on Your Journey?

It's a long way to the top. Melrose made four trips to the finals and didn't win it all until the third in 2012. 

Winning is hard. That's what makes it valuable. 

The new State Tournament format eliminates the "easy bracket" pathway to the Final Four. Teams that survive and advance to the Final Eight will be worthy competitors. 

What are you doing today to be ready for your time? Focus on building skills. 

Cause and Effect

 "The magic is in the work." 

Elena Soukos skies for the attack.

Elena with Coach Scott Celli and her Massachusetts Volleyball Coaches Association All-State recognition plaque. Well-deserved! 

Happy Thanksgiving! How Are You Improving Today?

Happy Thanksgiving and congratulations on a great season.

Are you working on your game for 2022? Work on the "core skills" and your athleticism.

Core Skills (Offense)

• Hitting/Attacking
• Setting
• Serving

Core Skills (Defense)

• Blocking 
• Passing 
• Digging

Practicing jump serves has two benefits as it informs your attack but it also helps your defenders work on serve receive. This video might help:

What Drives Winning (and Losing)?

Bill Parcells had a saying, "you are what your record says you are." That's not always true but if not, explanations should be clear. 

You could also use mathematician Carl Jacobi's principle of "inversion" as in, "invert, always invert." 

If a team constantly fails, find the reason why and consider implementing the opposite. 

Cross posted...

What Are You Prepared to Sacrifice?

"Success is a choice." What are you prepared to sacrifice?

Cross-posted. 

Scheduling: A Key to Success

"Iron sharpens iron." Upgrading the schedule has long been a priority of Coach Scott Celli. Part of the solution emerged from the Middlesex League which continually improves.

Among the five Freedom Division opponents, Burlington and Wakefield guarantee four tough contests. In the Liberty Division, Winchester, Woburn, and Reading are always competitive and Arlington, Belmont, and Lexington are no pushovers. That equates to at least ten of sixteen ML competitive matches.  

That leaves four non-league contests. Normally, teams agree on a home and home series which also allows fans who don't travel to see good clubs. And it allows Melrose to learn to win on the road. Rarely, an opposing community doesn't follow through on the return visit to Melrose. 

Melrose has 'stable' relationships with Frontier, Newton North, and Central Catholic and had a solid contest with Peabody this season. The former two went to the state championship in their divisions. 

Preseason scrimmages afford another avenue to hone your game. Melrose faces strong teams in the preseason and some of the top teams in the state at the Medway Play Date. 

Players often ask, "how good are they?" Remember Coach Don Meyer's quote, "it matters how you play not whom you play."

Lagniappe (something extra). 

End of the Line, State Finals Hit Melrose Opponents Hard

Among other iconic performances, "Queen" is famous for "Another One Bites the Dust." Well, that wouldn't summarize what happened yesterday. Triple jeopardy as all three previous Melrose opponents hit the canvas Saturday.  

Newton North couldn't dethrone Needham in Division 1 at the Tigers succumbed in five sets. 

Melrose conqueror Westborough came into the finals having lost only three sets in twenty-two matches this season. Hopkinton handed them the same number of defeats yesterday, rallying from a 1-0 deficit to win 3-1. 

And Frontier, winner of double digit state titles, got upset 3-1 by upstart Paulo Freire.  

The Name of the Game

Sustainable competitive advantage is the name of the game. How do you get there? You see the same teams go deep in the playoffs, year after year. 

Melrose has been in the Final Four nine of the past eighteen years with playoffs. Twice they lost in the sectional finals to a Central Catholic team which was later moved to Division 1. 

What's the secret sauce? 

• Investment. Alabama coach Nick Saban asks, "are you investing your time or are you spending it?" What is your commitment level? Do you want to make the team, to become a contributor, or become a force?
• Sacrifice. Parents and players sacrifice time and money to play on competitive offseason teams. It's not just playing on any offseason team, but the right ones. You think Newton North is in the Finals by accident or that SMASH in their backyard helps? There's no pot of gold at the end of the rainbow for almost all players. Club stars from volleyball hotbeds (California, Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio) get the lions share of scholarships. Offseason volleyball is expensive, as are personal training, athletic club membership (for weight training, etc.), and medical care for injuries (ankle, back, hand, etc.).
• Development. "Every day is player development day." There are a finite number of skills, but elite performance requires elite training. A top US team went to Japan and got annihilated by Japanese collegians on a team that trained eight hours a day, 363 days a year. The Japanese coach suggested that Minnesota try high school competition in Japan... and they went 4-9. We can argue Malcolm Gladwell's '10,000 hours' thesis, but deliberate practice matters. 
• Coaching. I know little about coaching volleyball but it's easy to see the impact of coaching locally (Coach Scott Celli recently reached 500 career wins) and throughout the Middlesex League. Kayla Wyland is turning around Wakefield. John Fleming made Winchester a Middlesex League force. 
• Scheduling. "Iron sharpens iron." Unless teams are willing to travel and schedule strong teams, they will not advance far in the postseason. Especially with the new playoff format, you won't "luck into a weak bracket" and get to the Final Four. 
• Talent. You need talent and you need to "keep it home" with a 'legacy program' with top coaching and scheduling. So many sports lose athletes to prep, private, and charter schools who recruit them away with scholarships and promises. 

What's the secret sauce? It's no secret. 

Melrose Opponents Moving on to the Finals

Scheduling tough opponents is critical for success. Melrose opponents in the Massachusetts finals include:

Division 1 - Newton North

Division 2 - Westborough (via playoffs)

Division 5 - Frontier 

Maxpreps.com Mass Rankings

#	School	Ovr.	Rating	Str.	+/-
1	Westborough	21-0	37.0	15.5
2	Hopkinton	24-0	33.7	12.5
3	Franklin	19-1	27.5	8.4	+1
4	Newton North (Newtonville)	18-2	26.8	10.0	+8
5	Haverhill	19-3	26.7	12.7	-2
6	Needham	21-1	26.7	7.9	+2
7	Concord-Carlisle (Concord)	21-2	26.6	10.8	-1
8	King Philip Regional (Wrentham)	22-2	26.4	9.0	-3
9	Melrose	21-3	25.4	10.1	-2
10	Ipswich	20-1	25.4	6.6
11	Billerica Memorial (Billerica)	20-3	24.9	10.5	-2

"Will I" Do What It Takes?

Potential applications are legion. 

- Will I invest more time studying? 

- Will I exercise? 

- Will I follow a healthier diet? 

- Will I get enough sleep? 

- Will I develop the skills I need to become a bigger contributor? 

Interrogative self-talk is a possible solution. 

Opportunities on the Edges

Melrose made another deep playoff run with strong play from its four seniors who will leave big shoes to fill. 

Outside hitters Elena Soukos and Abby Hudson brought a lot of thump to the lineup, libero Autumn Whelan was an exceptional defender, and Ava Burns produced at both right side and serving. 

Melrose will return experience with Gia Vlajkovic who might engender thoughts of a "two setter" system because of her hitting prowess, strong middles in Chloe Gentile and Sadie Jaggers, and solid defenders in Ava McSorley and Emma Desmond. 

Big opportunities are out there for players to step up and fill the edges and for someone to earn the libero slot. 

Coach Celli reminds players each postseason gathering that all spots are open and the ascension of Burns in particular proved that correct. As Shakespeare wrote, "oh reason not the need" another alternative is to return Gia to the outside for her dynamic hitting.

Expect no tears from Middlesex League opponents. 

State Semifinals: Westborough 3 Melrose 0

Top-seeded Westborough derailed Melrose's planned trip to its fifth state final with a 25-19, 25-14, 28-26 defeat. 

To get to the championship game, you have to be on top of your game and Melrose didn't have its "A" game. The Rangers had a lot to do with that with superb defense, consistent serving, and enough offense to keep Melrose off balance. 

Melrose struggled to get into their offense as Westborough's pressure constantly kept Melrose on their heels. 

Westborough's star sophomore Quinn Anderson came at Melrose from everywhere serving, back row hits, and outside attacks. She was a load and then some. 

Melrose fought back in the third set, leading 6-4 and 11-9 and having the edge at 24-20 and set points at 25 and 26 but couldn't put Westborough away. 

The better team usually wins and tonight was no exception. 

Melrose closes out the season 21-3 including three postseason wins. 

Melrose Notes: As usual, Melrose traveled well with a large contingent of student and volleyball supporters. Watertown had enough seating to meet the fan requirements and the ceiling height was adequate. 

The team recognized Coach Celli's recent 500th career coaching win. (Photo courtesy of Jen Gentile) 

 

Stay Ready

Stay ready. Lineups are dynamic. Players get sick, injured, have an off day, break a shoelace. 

Just because you haven't been in the rotation doesn't mean you won't get a shot because of the changing fortunes of luck or performance. 

I've beaten the "broken shoelace" (2005) to death because Taylor Pearson came in cold and performed. 

In a state semifinal a player was having an off day and Coach Celli brought in a sophomore off the bench. 

In 2012, during the State Championship run, Sydney Doherty came in and contributed some key points. 

Bill Parcells said, "Coaches are the most selfish people. We play people who make us look good." 

You might be called upon to come in and serve, even if you've never played in a varsity game because you have a dynamic serve. You might have to switch positions because of injury. 

Stay ready. 

Just One Thing: Keep Running

Everyone falls. Not everyone gets up.

Sport celebrates creativity. One of the top plays of the postseason came early in the second set against North Quincy with a "foot dig". 

The mission tonight is to put Westborough to sleep. The best comparative? Melrose faced Arlington Catholic (22-0) in the D2 North Finals in 2003 with the Cougars having not lost a set. Melrose emerged with a 3-0 victory with Denise Applegate administering the coup de grace with a topspin smash from the outside. 

Melrose Weekly Summary of Billerica Match

 Summary via Twitter

Corrected TICKET LINK

Volleyball semifinal tickets 

There Is Always Somebody

"There's always somebody saying you can't do it, and those people have to be ignored."
-Bill Cartwright#MondayMotivation #GetBetterEveryDay

— Coach DeMarco, EdD (@Coach_DeMarco) November 15, 2021

 

TICKETS for TOMORROW'S SEMIFINAL ONLY AVAILABLE at GOFAN.COM

"Your money is no good here." Literally. Fans must buy tickets for tomorrow night (Watertown, Tuesday 7 P.M.) at https://gofan.co/app/school/MA14639. 

 

Not Their First Rodeo - Focus on Seniors

It's not the first rodeo for Melrose Volleyball. Melrose travels to Watertown Tuesday at 7 P.M. for their ninth trip to the Final Four since 2003. Four times they advanced to the State Championship - 2005, 2011, 2012, and 2017.

Here is the summary: 

15 consecutive league titles 
9 Final Four appearances (including 2021)
4 state finals berths
1 state championship 

0 excuses

Winning is hard, which makes it valuable. And senior leadership is a pivotal component to excellence. Here's a quick look at teams that went to the title game.

The 2005 team featured three senior hitters (Jen Cohane, Karen and Paula Sen), a senior setter (Amanda Hallett) and senior depth with Merry Hayward, Liz Sheerin, and designated server Michelle Foley. Each of the twins held Melrose records for kills at one time. 

2011 was remarkable as a pair of All-State selectees, setter Brooke Bell and middle Sarah McGowan, were juniors. Seniors Jill Slabacheski and Alyssa DiRaffaele were key starters and senior contributors included Rachel Wolley, Brittany Adelman, and Maggie Moriarty. 

The 2012 State Championship team returned a boatload of senior talent - Bell and McGowan, Jen Cain, Rachel Johnson, Kayla Wyland, Amanda Commito, and Sydney Doherty. They also had future stars like Jill MacInnes and Allie Nolan. McGowan had 341 kills in 27 games and Bell and McGowan repeat as All-staters.

2017 had an abundance of youth but four solid senior captains - Lily Fitzgerald an all-everything setter, with versatile Saoirse Connolly, Jill Mercer, and Lydia Lombardo. They came up one set short of a title. 

All of which brings us to 2021 with senior stars Elena Soukos, Autumn Whelan, Abby Hudson, and Ava Burns. 

Coach Scott Celli made it clear that Melrose Volleyball version 2021.2 had the most talent since the 2012 championship team. And the girls validated that assessment by punching their ticket to the Final Four. 

Elena Soukos is a likely "triple crown" winner...All-State and Boston Globe and Boston Herald All-Scholastic. She has 312 kills and counting and averages 4.2 kills/set. But she is also a dynamic server and solid defender. If we construct a mythical All-Time top six at Melrose, she is definitely on it. 

Autumn Whelan is one of the top liberos in program history. She's been a defensive human highlight reel and her service run to launch Melrose into the Final Four goes into the annals of Melrose volleyball. 

Abby Hudson is a hard-hitting strong side hitter whose best comp is Laura Irwin. Abby's season was cut short by injury yet her closeout winner against Billerica will live on like Athena Ziavras' Sectional Championship winner in 2010. 

Ava Burns is a human dynamo of energy with solid blocking and serves southpaw knuckleballs with deadly accuracy. She emerged as an important force on the right side. 

You got this.  

Matchup Set for Tuesday, 7 PM at Watertown

Hot off the press, Melrose versus Westborough, 7 PM Tuesday via Coach Celli...

Source Material - Melrose.volleyball on Instagram

Melrose.volleyball on Instagram is another terrific site for pictures and more. 

And yes the natives are restless awaiting the details of the State Semifinals match. 

Having a Great Life, There Is Magic in Thinking Big. And the Science of the Final Spike

Stoic philosophy developed a following in the sports world. "Control what you can control" is a central theme for many athletes. 

We control our attitude, our choices, and our effort. We control our preparation and our self-care - sleep, exercise, nutrition, positivity. 

Imagine a world where you compete at a high level with your friends and teammates in a fabulous facility in front of an enthusiastic crowd. You don't have to imagine it; you live it. 

Many high school athletes never experience a winning season or play in a postseason game. Few get to experience playing deep in the postseason. 

Stack one good day atop another and another. Be excited about the process. Get to don't have to.

Lagniappe (something extra). "There is magic in thinking big."

Lagniappe 2. Sports science. Control space to control time. 

Set the playback speed to 0.25. Abby Hudson contacts the ball after 28 seconds and the play is over a fraction of a second later as the ball traverses perhaps 18-20 feet. The average speed of a volleyball spike is 50-70 mph. 60 mph is 88 feet per second. 

18/88 is approximately 0.2 seconds. Perfect execution reduces the defender's time to read and react to almost nothing. 

Sometimes we wish a play could be made, but the space-time relationship precludes it. 

Next Up: Westborough

Melrose faces Westborough in the state semifinal round at a site and time to be announced. I wouldn't be shocked if Newton were the venue. 

Here's a look at some recent video. 

Westborough holds the edge in the all-time series which Maxpreps.com tracks since 2006. 

"It's Chalk Except When It's Not"

We talk about "chalk" when discussing how the results follow the seedings or not. Historically, the seedings had little to do with the results, because top-seeded teams with great records against weak teams often never advanced past early rounds. 

The MIAA deployed a new system this year and four of the top five seeds made the Final Four. 

Westborough (1) advanced with a 3-1 win over Dartmouth (8). 

King Philip (2) punched their ticket with a 3-0 win over ML sisters Woburn (10). 

Hopkinton (3) cruised past Westwood (6) in straight sets. 

Melrose (5) was the lone exception with its 3-2 win over Billerica (4). 

This leads us to the newest rankings from The Boston Globe. 

That doesn't mean the system is perfect but it's a vast improvement on the old system. There is no "easy bracket" to the Final Four. 

Observations: 

1) Not everyone is a fan of the GoFan.com ticketing system and its surcharges. 

2) It pays to play a challenging schedule. In addition to the Middlesex League opponents, Melrose preseason and regular season opponents Newton North, Frontier, and Lynnfield are still alive in their divisions. Adversity late in the season helped propel Melrose's playoff run. 

3) Billerica's new facility had an electric atmosphere in an ultra-modern setting. 

4) You go where your stars take you and with senior leadership. Melrose leveraged both. 

5) And system replenishment with youthful experience helps teams get to the top and stay highly competitive. 

6) Never underestimate the role that coaches have in player and team development, scouting, and game planning. Coach Celli has been getting it done at Melrose for over twenty years. 

As of 7 A.M. the MIAA hasn't announced the venues and times for the semifinals. 

Another Angle on Match Point and Court Storming

 Hat tip: Jen Gentile

Boston Globe Summary, Comeback Context, and More

The Boston Globe adds their summary of the match, including an interview from Coach Scott Celli.

What is the context of this win? First, the victory launches the team into the "Final Four" for the ninth time since 2003, nine trips in the past nineteen seasons. That's about as often as the Patriots go to the Super Bowl during the same two decades. 

Second, trailing 10-3 in the fifth set, the team outscored Billerica 13-4 down the stretch, a remarkable achievement consider fatigue and pressure. What are the comparatives? In 2005, the State Finalists trailed Medfield two sets and 16-23 and rallied to win ten of the next thirteen points, winning 26-24 and forcing the match to five sets in defeat. I think it was in 2011 at Central Catholic when the team rallied from a deficit of something like 22-13 to win a set. Great rally but not in the playoffs...

Two keys include improvement within the Middlesex League with perennial strength from Winchester, Burlington, Woburn and Wakefield (a team on the rise) and willingness to play a strong non-league schedule. Competitive programs know that "iron sharpens iron." 

Never forget that it doesn't always go your way (2011, State Finals). 

But a lot of times...it does. Twenty-something win seasons have been the rule rather than the exception. From 2003 through 2012, Melrose went to the D2 North Final ten consecutive years and won seven times. They were thwarted twice by Central Catholic which was reassigned to Division 1. 

Brian McNally photo, Twitter

Bracketology

Around the Net.

Chris Hurley gives his take from The Lowell Sun

The Melrose Weekly pregame analysis

Match Point

Video Via Jen Gentile

Match point, Melrose wins the aggressiveness battle and uses the width of the court on an Abby Hudson smash. 

A lot 'went right' on this play:

• Autumn Whelan delivers another consistent serve.
• Billerica could be tentative facing match point. 
• Elena gets a back row attack in play.
• Billerica's dig off Elena's hit jams the setter at the net.
• The threat of middle attack pins the middle defender so there is no double block.
• Abby gets a quality set against the lone blocker who is "late" as Abby's attack goes past before she can get a full jump.
• Down-the-line attack gives the back row defender zero reaction time...literally a do or die play. 

Elite 8 Melrose Road Warriors Outlast Billerica 3 - 2, Advance to State Semifinals

 “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.”

― Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities

Melrose rallied from an 'insurmountable' fifth set deficit to beat Billerica 24-26, 26-24, 15-25, 25-19, and 16-14. 

Melrose used most of its nine lives in besting the higher seed on their home court in a brilliant atmosphere for a high school playoff game. 

The first two sets were back and forth affairs with lead changes and action exhausting the oxygen in the room. Melrose had the edge at the net with Chloe Gentile and Sadie Jaggers in the fight and Billerica had exceptional defense and a breadth of attacks with back sets to the right side and back row hitting. 

After a comeback from 15-20 in the second set, Melrose came out flat in the third and Billerica had more energy during a 25-15 win. 

Melrose came out counterpunching in the fourth, the volleyball equivalent of delivering shots to the body. Melrose got an edge and held on.

And then the fateful fifth. Melrose dug a hole trailing 0-6 and 3-8 at the switch. I was texting with Winchester coach John Fleming.

Melrose fell to 3-10 before it’s epic rally to victory. Here’s video from Ralph Labella of the comeback fists of fury starting with Melrose trailing 11-14 (game to 15). 

Diversified Attack

Ferguson Connolly’s “Game Changer” shares wisdom of diversified attack. Challenge the defense to defend multiple players in multiple areas across the breadth of 'the field'. 

"You Feel It. Now Go Do It."

"You feel it. Now go do it." 

 

#5 Seed Melrose Excited to Travel to #4 Seed Billerica for Quarterfinal Tussle Tonight

Melrose is no stranger to deep playoff runs, including eight sectional championships and four trips to the State Finals including the 2012 Championship.

As Coach Scott Celli noted two months ago, key components include playing well, staying healthy, and having a little luck.

During the postseason, a premium on winning points arises as opposed to scoring. Teams are more consistent and aggressive offense with a minimum of three powerful hitters is essential. The emergence of Rachel Johnson as a third threat in the 2012 postseason put Melrose over the top. 

Melrose has the requisite hitters capable of delivering double digit kills including Elena Soukos and Abby Hudson outside and Chloe Gentile and Sadie Jaggers inside. Before moving to setter, Gia Vlajkovic had the same power hitting and adds blocking and a hitting threat at setter.

In Game Changer, Fergus Connolly emphasizes that analytics should have statistical meaning for outcomes. He might say for example that a "get me over" hit (free ball) should carry virtually no risk as it is unlikely to have any reward. Similarly, one could measure the attack efficiency of quick sets, back sets to opposite, slide attacks, and back row hitting relative to setting the outside. 

Years ago, during basketball tryouts, a little sixth grader came up to me before it started saying, "Hi, my name is Naomi, and I'm really excited to be here." She made the team. 

Be excited to be here and enjoy the moment. 

The Hall of Fame Committee will catch up on the numerals (2019, 2021... no season in 2020).

Billerica (green) versus Haverhill (white).