Imagine It's Today Plus Four Months

We're bad at planning, the planning fallacy.

Wikipedia describes it, "The planning fallacy is the well‑documented tendency for people to underestimate the time, costs, and risks involved in completing future tasks, while overestimating the benefits. This bias persists even when past experience clearly shows that similar tasks took longer or were more difficult than expected." 

It applies to businesses, students writing a thesis, and to people training for sports. Systemic overoptimism leads us to believe we will do what we say we will in the time specified. Mostly we're wrong. 

"A word means what I say it means." - Humpty Dumpty

Vertical jump improvement? "I'll raise mine at least three inches by working out three times a week."

Conditioning? "I'll be able to jump rope for five minutes or run a mile in under eight minutes." 

Serving? "I'll be able to serve 18-19 in out of 20." What about, "If you don't, everyone will run two fullcourt up and back."

Habit formation. Student-athletes can meet their goals through deliberate practice and tracking. Habits from with this combination:

• Pick (the activity)
• Stick (do it over a prescribed schedule)
• Check (track with a calendar, spreadsheet, or notebook). 

Commitment and consistency. Public commitment can help. When we tell our friends and family that we'll do something, we're more likely to fulfill our promise. 

"Winners are trackers." - Darren Hardy in The Compound Effect

Lagniappe. Confidence is earned not given. 

“Earning and deserving the confidence that you play with because of the work that you put in and then not being afraid of failure,” Steph Curry

Confidence isn’t something you feel, it’s something you earn with relentless will and practice. pic.twitter.com/PFAlPrGJpH

— The Winning Difference (@thewinningdiff1) April 16, 2026