Signal and Noise

What is noise? "Noise—unexpected and unwanted variance in human judgments." Facts may be signals and opinions are often noise. Blogs share opinion as much as anything else, ‘noisy’.

Subjective judgments lack reproducibility relative to algorithms or mechanical judgment. For example, if we asked who are the best players in professional baseball, we'd get a variety of answers. If we asked for the WAR (wins above replacement) of MLB players, we might not answer the question but have more information. 

If asked about players or teams, I might use examples. For instance, four year varsity player Victoria Crovo was both an exceptional player and leader at Melrose. Despite those twin skills, she wasn't fortunate to be on a sectional championship team. 

Winning blends skill, luck, and an occasional favorable call.  

Michael Mauboussin addresses this in The Success Equation and Annie Dukes expands on it in Thinking in Bets. I'd rank volleyball in a similar zone to basketball, highly skill-dependent.

In Moneyball, Michael Lewis profiled baseball's paradigm shift to more analytics-based roster construction. Coach Celli's mathematics background appears in subtle and less subtle ways. Statistics matter to the extent that they impact the score. 

• Does a harder serve win more points or create more service errors?
• Do back row attacks increase or decrease scoring chances? 
• Which are most effective - setting outside, quick sets, back sets?
• How effective is a given players 'setter dumps'? 
• Do jump serves add or decrease efficiency? 

Statistics add context and 'signal'. The best players, teams, and coaches do more of what works and less of what doesn't. Execution beats innovation. Which is why Melrose has been in good hands for more than two decades. 

NOISE. The latest preseason volleyball poll. 

SIGNAL. Players will shank balls, hit into the net, and have service errors. In fact, in the state championship game years ago, a terrific server served a ball half way up the back wall. It counted the same as a serve out by an inch.