Understand some of the thinking behind the MIAA Power Rankings.
Melrose clocks in at #10 in the D2 rankings. Power rankings (PR) reflect "margin of victory" and "strength of schedule."
Historically, the PR have had high predictive value of tournament success, although Melrose has bucked that trend in the past with upsets.
Why PR anyway? Teams with great records (e.g. undefeated) in less competitive leagues would get high seeds and get knocked out in the first round by .500 teams from better leagues. The MIAA looked for another methodology and it's largely proven accurate.
Melrose has the second lowest strength of schedule (SOS) in the D2 top ten. The issue is that the bottom of the Freedom Division (Stoneham, Wilmington, Watertown) is particularly weak this season and the six games against those teams is going to anchor Melrose's SOS in the lower tier of the competitors despite playing Winchester, Lexington, Burlington (twice), Wakefield (twice), Frontier, Westborough, Duxbury, and Newton North. "It is what it is."
Presuming Melrose stays in the #10-12 slot (likely) it means the "Round of 32" home game would matchup the #23-21 opponent. For example, at #10, they'd face #23 Marblehead. If a #10 seed advances, they travel to #7 (Hopkinton) over fifty miles away. I gave a talk there once. It's a hike.
In addition to the top 32, teams with winning records below #32 also qualify. As of today, that's another eight, who would enter a preliminary round against #25-#32.
Melrose notes: Melrose has a two-game edge in the Freedom Division standing heading down the stretch. A Freedom Division title would extend the MVB title run to 18 consecutive years. The streak was interrupted in 2006 with a final game loss at Reading with a pair of game deciding fifth set calls that went against MVB. We were broadcasting from a perch at the intersection of the back end and side lines in perfect position to see balls sail wide of the antenna and land in the deep corner. FWIW.
Deep playoff runs require three dynamic hitters, players with the skill, size, and athleticism to deliver 10-15 kills consistently. The return of Sofia Papatsoris and strong play of Emme Boyer give Melrose a chance to have that in addition to Sabine Wenzel and Carol Higonenq who are Melrose's "Big Two."
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