All opinions expressed in the blog are solely my own. My goal includes sharing principles that work across multiple domains - life hacks. The blog is not an official publication of any City of Melrose institution.
Cognitive errors are the euphemism applied to "flawed thinking" or "dumb mistakes" They're widespread in life and in sport.
Sometimes you get away with them ("swimming with sharks") and sometimes you don't. They differ from bad behavior which we know is dangerous such as drinking excessively or distracted driving (e.g. texting and driving). Or, in England, remember to "look right" before crossing.
Here are a few for today's discussion:
1) Attribution bias
2) Sample size
3) Confirmation bias
4) Recency bias
5) Availability heuristic
Attribution Bias
Many factors relate to the outcome of sporting contests - talent, preparation, and coaching are among the most important. When successful we feel pride or validation that our methods are sound. When not we may seek alternatives - the officials, the venue, opposing fans, anything that shifts or attributes the outcome away from "we weren't good enough that day."
Health and luck certainly play a role in outcomes, but habitual excuse making is a bad look. Be humble in victory and gracious in defeat.
One famous football coach who will remain nameless had the reputation of taking credit for victories and assigning blame for losses to players. He's not coaching now.
Sample Size
"One swallow does not make a summer." Everyone has a breadth of performances with most clustering around some central range. That's why tryouts usually don't last one session, because more data - more detailed observation - tends to improve coaches' projection of player potential and long-term performance. There's a saying in business that's a corollary, "hire slow, fire fast." You don't want bad performers mucking up the works.
Confirmation Bias
Confirmation bias occurs when we engage with evidence that reinforces our beliefs and don't consider other opinions or disconfirming evidence. For example, we know that the best predictors of NBA success are - college attended, college basketball performance, and age at drafting (younger is better). The young star from a strong program fares better on average. There are exceptions, like the Celtics Payton Pritchard.
Consider the recent Super Bowl. If you read Boston papers, watched local media, and listed to Boston fans, you might be convinced to load up on the Patriots at "BettheRanch.com." Meanwhile, national forecasters were far less optimistic about the locals.
Extending those principles, we might project "career" success for freshmen who made varsity. There is truth to that, but it's not 100 percent. Polls are predictions and fun but don't change the scores of the games.
Recency Bias
Many tend to think that "what happened yesterday" will happen again today. Masataka Yoshida had a strong September when healthy, so he's prepped for a strong campaign in 2026. Recency bias says, "That dog don't hunt." UNC soccer maven Anson Dorrance tossed players into his "competitive cauldron" and forged "continual ascension." That's highly desirable and easier with a roster of All-Americans.
Last season's results are in the book. What will this season's record be? I can tell you before the season starts. 0 and 0.
Availability Heuristic
The availability heuristic is "back of the envelope" thinking where people estimate the frequency of an event based on how easily examples come to mind. Prior to 2020, when people thought "global pandemic" the reference point was the Spanish flu (which began in Fort Riley, Kansas) circa 1918. Newcomers to MVB rightly think of elite - Elena Soukos, Gia Vlajkovic, Sadie Jaggers, Leah Fowke, and Sabine Wenzel. Nothing wrong with that...older fans recall players from almost a generation earlier.
Bonus Consideration: "Antifragility"
Systems can breakdown when subjected to "shocks." Buildings, economies, and teams are fragile under some conditions. Superman wilts near Kryptonite. What is antifragile? The Hulk is antifragile. Evolution is antifragile, as many organisms adapt over time. Team depth isn't antifragile but is more survivable. Teams with solid seniors and promising youth are less fragile if not antifragile. MVB 26 should have depth which helps - along with higher end talent.
Lagniappe. Study. Study history. Study literature. Learn from what is known and others' mistakes.
"I believe in the discipline of mastering the best that other people have ever figured out. I don't believe in just sitting down and trying to dream it all up yourself. Nobody's that smart."
— Steve Burns (@SJosephBurns) February 20, 2026
— Charlie Munger pic.twitter.com/KglHwTAUrx
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