Win This Battle, Win the War?

Coach George Raveling wrote a little book, "War on the Boards" about rebounding. Poor teams seldom are great rebounders. In volleyball, the ability to win the SERVE and RECEIVE battles has a better chance for success.

Let's look inside the numbers, the games Melrose lost in 2023. Obviously, those were better opponents and incomplete data (e.g. aces, receive efficiency). Focus on team statistics rather than individual numbers.

Season:

• Serves attempted 1867
• Service errors 231
• Serving percentage 87.6%
• Serving points 1069 (57.3%)

Belmont:

• Serves attempted 74
• Service errors 15 (20.3%)
• Service points 32 (43.2%)
• Belmont aces 23 
• Belmont aces > 70% of Melrose service points

Westborough

• Serves attempted 31
• Service errors 6 (19.4%)
• Service points 5 (16.1%)
• Westborough aces 10
• Westborough aces doubled Melrose service points

Newton North

• Serves attempted 51
• Service errors 6 (11.8%)
• Service points 20 (39.2%)
• Newton aces 18 
• Newton aces 90% of Melrose service points

Canton

• Serves attempted 76
• Service errors 7 (9.2%)
• Service points 40 (52.6%)
• Canton aces 14
• Canton aces 35% of Melrose service points 

Consider 'random' important matches such as Wakefield and Billerica

Wakefield

• Serves attempted 102
• Service errors 15 (14.7)
• Service points 48 (47.1%)
• Wakefield aces 23
• Wakefield aces almost half of Melrose service points

Billerica 

• Serves attempted 98
• Service errors 10 (10.2%)
• Service points 55 (56.1%)
• Billerica aces (N/A)

Four losses (combined)

• Serves attempted 232
• Service errors 33 (14.2%)
• Service points 97 (41.8%)

Service error wins versus losses Chi-square p value significance .42

Service point percentage wins versus losses Chi-square p value significance < .00001

Caveats

1) I'm not a statistician.

2) Service points are not an accurate proxy for serve receive efficiency and errors. Points arise from both positive plays and opponent errors and points lost occur from both Melrose negative plays (both offense and defense) and opponent positive plays. 

3) Sample size of losses is small.

4) One-sided matches contribute fewer serves and serve receives than competitive games. This likely understates the impact of serve and receive.

5) My observation of published team stats are that upper echelon teams have high ace percentage, ergo force opponents to have receive issues

My hypothesis is that winning the serve-receive battle offers a meaningful opportunity to raise performance against more competitive teams. 

In the 2012, State Championship game versus Longmeadow

Serves - 96

Service errors - 7 (7.3%)

Service points - 56 (58.3%)

Longmeadow aces - 10

Longmeadow aces - 17.9% of Melrose service points

Apples and oranges perhaps, but Melrose had elite back row defense with Jill MacInnes, Allie Nolan, Amanda Commito, Jen Cain, Brooke Bell all of whom were either ultimately All-State or All-Stars.

 

Action from the State Championship game, leading 13-6 in the fourth set..."and like the Terminator, it doesn't feel pain, or pity, or remorse..."

with the final set 25-10. 

Lagniappe. I'm no volleyball expert. I study and see what intrigues or inspires. Coaches coach, players play.