Lake Wobegon Days

"The race is not always to the swiftest, or the battle to the strongest, but it pays to bet that way."
A third of the way through the volleyball season and what do we know?

• Volleyball coverage through the major local sports media is limited. It's a niche sport in a big sport market. 
• There have been two uber-powers in Massachusetts volleyball within the past five years, Medfield and Barnstable, although New Bedford caught up last season and may again this. Even among the other stronger programs (like Central Catholic, Marlborough, Melrose, North Reading, Case) they're playing catch up. 
• Volleyball is not so different than most sports...there is a sharp distinction between the haves and the have-nots. This is not a change or recent observation, this is a decade of history. All the teams' players and coaches are working hard to be the best they can be, but we have the Lake Wobegon effect at work. "all the women are strong, all the men are good looking, and all the children are above average"
• Sustained success depends on coaching, players, infrastructure, and community involvement. 
• We will always view our teams through attribution bias and endowment bias, because that is how we are wired. 

Most of the communities in the Middlesex League have areas of 'specialization', although some, like Reading have shown more general excellence than others on both the boys and girls side. For example (but not limited to)

Belmont: soccer

Burlington: hockey, football, cheerleading

Lexington: boys basketball, softball 

Melrose: volleyball, girls basketball

Reading: track, football, almost everything

Stoneham: soccer (boys and girls), softball, baseball

Wakefield: football, girls hockey

Watertown: field hockey, boys basketball

Winchester: soccer, hockey

Woburn: football, basketball, hockey (boys and girls)

It is the exception to the rule that teams from schools with small enrollments can dominate. Watertown achieves this with tremendous infrastructure (youth programs) and tradition that attracts attention. For example, their basketball program led by Steve Harrington is a model of excellence, a consistent winner with two state championships. Reading track won over 250 consecutive meets. That's not luck; that's hard work. You need some luck to avoid injury, stay healthy, and sometimes win close contests, but you can't rely on luck for sustained results. 

This doesn't mean that a team without a historically strong program won't excel, with cyclical effects or a couple of star players, but the strong teams usually continue to dominate and the weaker teams usually keep struggling. Watertown has a trophy case full of field hockey state championships and Winchester has produced some of the best soccer teams in New England. Once upon a time, Lexington (Ron Lee) and Winchester (Bob Bigelow) birthed NBA first round draft choices. That's probably about a once in a lifetime experience. I played on a team that lost to Lexington by 45 points because they (three time State Champions) were that much better than we were that day. No excuses, no complaints; that's sports...their job is to beat you and sometimes what goes around comes around. 

For most, volleyball isn't a year round sport, and we're nowhere near the excellence of many states. I know a player from California who couldn't make her high school team and received a Division I volleyball scholarship in the East. That's not perception; that's reality. 

In watching Middlesex League volleyball for a decade, I can recall one volleyball match during that time that we lost that perhaps we should have won (2006). A strong argument can be made that North Reading had Melrose on the ropes last year, outplaying Melrose for much of the game before falling short. When Melrose has lost, it has almost always been because the team was outplayed. That happens less often now because the team has simply improved and played better non-league competition trying to get better. The ML is getting better (Stoneham and Winchester in particular) and the impact of expansion (Arlington, Wilmington) remains to be seen. 

Occasionally, behind the scenes conversations and history color the discussion. That's in house and maybe that's not fair to outside readers. You want an example? A ML team posted a poster of several Melrose players with a bull's eye on it, with the caption "Get 'em".  The team knows who it is...and in retrospect it's pretty funny.

The ML has some quality coaches, and I love coach Viselli's enthusiasm, as he can give as good as he can take. Melrose has two potential starters injured but that's not an excuse. The team doesn't have anyone with mono or visa problems, or anything else, and the current enrollment can't be expected to change for the better or worse.

Beliefs are not facts, yet far more stubborn. 

This blog is not affiliated with Melrose High School in any way.