Saturday, September 13, 2014

See Both Sides of the Trade

The approach to investing and sports overlap in large degree. They both rely study, mental toughness, focus, commitment, and process. The process of preparation, planning, practice, feedback, and adjustments belong to both sports and trading. You can only change your personnel (portfolio), strategy, and psychology.

This article discusses investment biases and limitations, but especially the value of humility.

Here are a few relevant excerpts:

Firstly, treat all decisions as experimental rather than formal commitments. This helps avoid theory-induced blindness, where making an initial decision seemingly commits us to a course of action regardless of its consequences. It's a state of mind, rather than a set of rules.

Secondly, be cautious about the extent of your knowledge - securities markets are beset by uncertainty, it is impossible to predict the future and highly risky to gamble on being able to do so...mistrust any expert who offers very precise predictions.

Thirdly, don't react to events immediately, no matter how critical it may seem to do so. In the short-term emotional responses distort our decision making processes and enforcing a delay allows us time to calm down and reconsider

I'm always reminded of a mentor's admonition, "good judgment comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgment."

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