Sunday, October 22, 2023

At Wilmington Monday

Melrose goes on the road for its final three games, starting tonight in Wilmington (3-15, 3-11 ML12). 

Wilmington has beaten Stoneham twice and Watertown and won a set against both Melrose and Wakefield. They also got 21 points in a set against Winchester, and 19 points in two sets versus Woburn 

Their goal will be acting as a "spoiler." Melrose seeks to get back on track after Friday's loss at Westborough. 

Melrose seeks to build momentum headed into the postseason and to stay as high as possible in the power rankings. 


Best case scenario? Three sweeps with a final AVG MARGIN of 1.90 and OPP RATING of 2.065 (total 3.965). Realistically, sweeping Newton North is highly unlikely. 

More likely a final ranking around 3.7 to 3.8 is possible . That won't get a top four ranking. That could be a 5-6-7 area seeding. 

For example, Duxbury faces (with OPRAT):

  • Nantucket  (W 3 - 1) 1.48
  • Quincy  - 1.06 
  • Dartmouth - 3.32
  • Bourne - 2.40
  • Pembroke - 0.68
I'll presume they win all 3-0 for calculation purposes. That raises their AVG Margin to 2.45. That raises their OPRAT to 1.60 so their total goes to 4.05. Of course, they may not go 12-0 in their final sets and their opponents ratings can also change. 

My guess is that Duxbury will get to #5.

Oliver Ames plays powerhouse Bishop Feehan which recently beat Barnstable and lower-rated opponents in Sharon and Foxborough (they swept both earlier in the season). Their schedule combination is similar to Melrose's so I wouldn't expect big movement for them. 

Not sure that teams can "game the system" so the logical approach is play well and be healthy going into the postseason. 


 

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