Sunday, October 30, 2022

"I Wonder, What If, Let's Try"

The MIAA power ranking system places Melrose somewhere in the top six.


Melrose will finish with an average margin of 1.75 (plus 35 sets divided by 20 matches) and opponent rating (I think) of 1.488 ("19 x 1.635 plus Stoneham's minus 1.30" divided by 20). 

What if Melrose played a weaker schedule of non-league opponents? In Melrose's non-league schedule (0-4, 5 sets won, 12 sets lost) they were minus 7. Let's presume those are replaced by 12-0 with 'weak teams' with an average opponent rating of either 0 or 1. 

Instead of 53 sets won, 18 lost, that recalculates to 60 sets won, 11 lost, plus 49, divided by 20 (2.45)

But what about the opponent ratings? Melrose's opponent rating today was 31.065.

Westborough 5.388
Newton North 4.768
Peabody 3.101
Frontier 3.669 

Sum of ratings equals 16.926

Current rating 29.765 minus 16.926 equals 12.839

12.839 divided by 20 equals 0.642


Of course this is an approximation because the non-league opponents' ratings would change depending on whom they played instead of Melrose and those outcomes. 

But what it likely means that with a weaker schedule, Melrose's rating would still fall in the same ballpark as its current. 

But Melrose would lose the experience of playing elite competition which is whom they will see in the postseason. As Bill Belichick would say, "we'll see how it goes." 









 

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