“We’ll See How It Goes”

Metacognition means "thinking about thinking." We may "jump to conclusions" because we're 'wired' to respond for safety. If a speeding car heads toward us, we don't think, we react and jump away. 

But we may "overreact" in other situations. 

Here are the preseason volleyball rankings from The Boston Globe. 

They're opinion and literally based on a "sample size" of zero. 

Other cognitive biases may come into play. We suffer "endowment effect" because we overvalue what is ours, whether it's a coffee mug, a sports team, or a defensive specialist. What's mine is better...because it's mine. As a sports parent, I know that feeling. 

We also struggle with "confirmation bias." We read or listen to arguments that reinforce our preexisting beliefs. We ignore "disconfirming evidence." A helpful example comes from Michael Lewis's seminal book, Moneyball. General manager Billy Beane asked, "if he's such a good hitter, why doesn't he hit better?" 

Before we take umbrage at rankings, let's remember the messages from Don Miguel Ruiz's "The Four Agreements." 

Don't take it personally and don't make assumptions. 

Bill Belichick, a master of understatement, often has a versatile answer when asked about his team or a player's future. "We'll see how it goes."